The Zombie Stack Exchanges That Just Won't Die
http://static.googleusercontent.com/external_content/untrusted_dlcp/research.google.com/en//archive/disk_failures.pdf says that there is no correlation between disk usage and failure rate. But I'm not sure if this applies for home usage.
I also wonder - will my external hard drives be just as good if I haven't used them for 10 years? All my external hard drives from 2007 are still going strong, for example.
InquilineKea
Anyway, I do not understand how does knowing the answer to this question helps you preserve data - there is no practical difference between 1% fail percentage and 10% fail percentage, you need backups both ways.